Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c27…ea99 crypto 24 markets active 17h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$15
14 days+$7
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -34.9% -41.1% 65% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -43.4% -48.8% 57% 0% -9.5%
all 23 -43.4% -48.8% 57% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -53.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -58.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -62.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,075) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -54% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,080 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,080 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,083 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,080 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $2,071 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,063 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 31 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 21? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,080 17h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,080 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,075 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,072 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,064 3d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,083 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2,080 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,071 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2,063 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.20 · official $5.20 (match) · 39 history records