Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8c24…220f politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$14
politics 31% −$11
sports 15% −$35
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 138 -1.7% -11.1% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage138d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $591 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $405 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $201 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $392 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $158 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $160 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $367 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $356 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $417 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $394 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 10h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 29d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 30d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $179 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $179 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $208 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $208 34d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $216 36d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $216 36d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $165 36d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 37d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $169 37d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $169 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.02 · official $64.02 (match) · 426 history records