Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c21…1eb9
sports · 296 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$123 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$158 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,695
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses235 / 18
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions43
Markets (closed)253 / 296
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day93.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 43 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 90¢ 100¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 90¢ 100¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? No 91¢ 95¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Spurs 91¢ 94¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Spurs 91¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Spurs 91¢ 89¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? No 91¢ 89¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? No 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Knicks 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 91¢ 88¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? No 90¢ 86¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 91¢ 84¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Under 91¢ 83¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Under 91¢ 77¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Under 91¢ 72¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $99 +$10 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $96 +$9 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$46
other 16% +$114
weather 5% +$36
crypto 5% +$13
culture 2% $0
world 0% +$4
finance 0% +$4
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 5m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 5m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 91¢ $82 5m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 91¢ $4 8m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 8m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 91¢ $68 8m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 91¢ $18 8m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1 10m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 91¢ $72 10m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 91¢ $27 10m
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 91¢ $100 12m
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 91¢ $100 12m
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) BUY Spurs 91¢ $99 19m
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) BUY Spurs 91¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $100 31m
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY No 91¢ $100 36m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 91¢ $100 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 91¢ $79 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 91¢ $4 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 91¢ $7 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 91¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 90¢ $99 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $96 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 90¢ $99 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 90¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -8.0%
≤30d 253 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -8.0%
≤90d 253 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -8.0%
all 253 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 5% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 5% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -16.8%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,694.58 · official $2,691.67 (match) · 632 history records