Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c20…bd85 crypto 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$359 (+16%) realized +$317 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%100W / 127L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day152.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$32
sports 32% +$195
other 26% +$160
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 42% +4.8%
≤30d 227 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 42% +4.8%
≤90d 227 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 42% +4.8%
all 227 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 42% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 42% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -5.2%
15% -23.8% 35% -14.4%
20% -31.3% 30% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses100 / 127
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)227 / 243
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day152.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 50¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+106%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 95¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 36¢ 50¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 28¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 37¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 −$10 -23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$4 -12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$3 -30%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $15 −$6 -41%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +108%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$19 +75%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $31 −$27 -88%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $35 +$9 +27%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $15 −$13 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 +$29 +569%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $40 +$29 +71%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 +$13 +50%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$11 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +256%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +118%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$11 +223%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$46 +128%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +89%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$2 -8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$15 +101%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $13 +$8 +61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$13 +42%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 23m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 25m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 25m
Czechia vs. Mexico: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 29m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 29m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 18¢ $5 30m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 22¢ $2 34m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 34m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39m
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 19¢ $6 40m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $31 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $32 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $40 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $10 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 33¢ $9 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 38¢ $10 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $10 15h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.70 · official $202.70 (match) · 784 history records