Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c1d…f3e7 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$202 (-19%) realized −$204 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$89
politics 29% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.5% -40.7% 50% 33% -32.2%
≤30d 6 -34.5% -40.7% 50% 33% -32.2%
≤90d 6 -34.5% -40.7% 50% 33% -32.2%
all 6 -34.5% -40.7% 50% 33% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 33% -32.2%
10% -46.4% 33% -38.7%
15% -51.6% 17% -44.6%
20% -56.3% 0% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$105 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $291 +$25 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $237 +$66 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$6 +46%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $96 −$87 -91%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $220 −$217 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.70 · official $221.70 (match) · 23 history records