Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c1b…38e2 world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%31W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$4
other 26% −$7
politics 15% +$1
sports 13% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$10
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 26 +17.4% +6.2% 35% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 81 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 4% -9.7%
all 103 +5.0% -5.0% 30% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -14.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -30.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 72
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage289d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $124 +$4 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $191 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $210 −$4 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $65 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $127 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $149 +$4 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $138 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $62 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $388 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $195 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $134 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +31%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $63 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $70 −$7 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $45 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $22 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $44 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $66 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $73 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $72 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $66 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $62 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $62 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $62 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $68 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $67 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $68 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $68 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $68 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $68 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $6 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.31 · official $40.34 (match) · 447 history records