Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c1a…6131
crypto · 1688 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$78 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1285 / 403
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1688 / 1688
History coverage608d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1688 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$4
14 days−$30
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$110
politics 43% −$16
economics 3% +$49
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -0.4% -9.8% 81% 34% -9.7%
≤30d 1673 -2.1% -11.5% 77% 52% -11.3%
≤90d 1673 -2.1% -11.5% 77% 52% -11.3%
all 1688 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 52% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 52% -10.2%
10% -20.1% 9% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.62 · official $5.62 (match) · 3415 history records