Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c17…f26f crypto 261 markets active 5d ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-12%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%137W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$93
politics 33% −$77
other 24% −$88
world 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 39% -15.5%
≤30d 107 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 44% -10.2%
≤90d 200 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 47% -14.3%
all 261 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 41% -20.5%
10% -23.7% 35% -28.1%
15% -31.1% 30% -35.0%
20% -37.8% 24% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses137 / 124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage678d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 591 history records