Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8c16…7582 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$2
tech 35% −$2
other 16% −$1
world 6% −$1
economics 6% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 14 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage93d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 26 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $178 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 25 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $22 1m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $1,369 16m
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $24 26m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $1,337 33m
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 41m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $942 52m
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $384 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,328 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $217 69d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $217 69d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 69d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 69d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $220 70d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $220 70d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $222 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $222 71d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 71d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 76d
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $177 89d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $15 89d
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $130 89d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 89d
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $48 89d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $10 89d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $27 89d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $25 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.09 · official $75.09 (match) · 39 history records