Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c16…9d12 world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3
politics 16% $0
other 15% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 7 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 0% -11.0%
all 18 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage452d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $5 −$3 -56%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 09 $13 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 30 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 8h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $28 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $28 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $20 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $10 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $22 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $4 27d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 336d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $10 356d
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 380d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? BUY No 95¢ $9 428d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $10 428d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $10 430d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 430d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 432d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? SELL No 98¢ $2 433d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? SELL No 98¢ $8 434d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $13 434d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records