Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c14…c5fd politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$778 (-1%) realized −$778 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$847per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$18
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$68
other 30% −$67
sports 11% −$660
world 3% −$16
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -14.6% -22.7% 7% 0% -10.8%
all 133 -3.6% -12.8% 26% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -10.2%
10% -21.2% 9% -18.8%
15% -28.8% 7% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,076) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$778
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage144d
Avg bet$847
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $566 $566 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $5,151 −$6 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $960 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,972 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,887 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $811 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,966 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,401 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,336 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,697 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,031 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $979 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,764 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 02 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 02 $258 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,754 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $326 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $327 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $266 23h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $267 25h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $225 27h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $225 29h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $304 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $304 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $201 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $566 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $947 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $949 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $946 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $947 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $933 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $935 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $958 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $960 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $950 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $917 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $919 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $843 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $844 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $810 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $811 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $796 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $797 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $776 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.46 · official $566.46 (match) · 463 history records