Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8C 0x8c13…3bbf crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$7 (-25%) realized −$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-14.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-5.5%	-14.5%	60%	40%	-28.0%
≤30d	5	-5.5%	-14.5%	60%	40%	-28.0%
≤90d	5	-5.5%	-14.5%	60%	40%	-28.0%
all	5	-5.5%	-14.5%	60%	40%	-28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.5%	40%	-28.0%
10%	-22.7%	40%	-34.9%
15%	-30.2%	40%	-41.2%
20%	-37.0%	40%	-46.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	52¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$7	-68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$3	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Up	28¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$5	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$2	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records