Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c12…5e1b other 223 markets active 5d ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+4%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%102W / 102L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$9
sports 36% +$20
crypto 14% +$3
world 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.8% +27.4% 75% 75% +28.0%
≤30d 70 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 98 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 50% -5.1%
all 204 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 50% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 50% -5.5%
10% -14.7% 48% -14.5%
15% -22.9% 47% -22.8%
20% -30.5% 40% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses102 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)204 / 223
History coverage216d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $1 +$1 +134%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $1 $0 -27%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $1 +$3 +307%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $1 +$1 +134%
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $1 +$2 +152%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $1 +$1 +134%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $1 +$1 +93%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $1 +$1 +140%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $1 +$1 +119%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $1 +$1 +105%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $1 +$1 +101%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1 +$1 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1 +$1 +62%
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 01 $1 +$1 +101%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $1 $0 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $1 $0 -10%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Diego Dedura-Palomero May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1 +$4 +363%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi May 29 $1 +$2 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-08? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 50¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Maxim Mrva 42¢ $1 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $1 5d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 25¢ $1 7d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 38¢ $1 7d
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 55¢ $1 7d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 58¢ $1 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 21¢ $1 9d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 24¢ $1 9d
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $1 9d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Gauthier Onclin 42¢ $1 9d
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth BUY Diego Dedura-Palomero 27¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.85 · official $26.85 (match) · 424 history records