Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c10…ce5b
crypto · 876 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$78 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses635 / 241
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)876 / 876
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 876 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? No 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Maks Kasnikowski 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 1? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Nuggets Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 2? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 8? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$9
crypto 34% −$15
weather 18% −$48
other 10% +$2
world 2% $0
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -1.6% -10.9% 81% 43% -12.0%
≤30d 659 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 41% -15.6%
≤90d 876 -6.9% -15.7% 72% 38% -15.2%
all 876 -6.9% -15.7% 72% 38% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -15.2%
10% -23.8% 16% -23.3%
15% -31.2% 7% -30.8%
20% -37.9% 5% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1682 history records