Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c10…d7b3
other · 1286 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,973 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,027 · open −$135
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,117
Realized−$11,027
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1246 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1276 / 1286
History coverage133d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 10 History 1276 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$122
14 days+$422
30 days+$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 68¢ $4,938 $4,786 −$152 (-3%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,046 $3,041 −$5 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $550 $579 +$29 (+5%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 64¢ 67¢ $320 $335 +$15 (+5%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026? Yes 99¢ 86¢ $198 $172 −$26 (-13%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 72¢ 76¢ $66 $70 +$3 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 84¢ 87¢ $54 $56 +$2 (+4%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Down 99¢ 97¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will California Black Bears finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Austin Event? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Columbus Sliders finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Dallas Event? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $124 +$1 +1%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $133 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $152 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $457 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,119 +$25 +2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $6,784 +$6 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $4,439 +$8 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $8,065 +$8 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $6,722 +$11 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $316 +$48 +15%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Saracens win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Reds win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 06 $32 +$2 +7%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 33 or Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? Jun 06 $426 $0 +0%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 Jun 06 $227 $0 +0%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 21-23 Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 30-32 Jun 06 $270 +$1 +0%
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $1,346 +$2 +0%
Will VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Jun 06 $258 +$1 +0%
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $1,216 +$2 +0%
Will VOX (VOX) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Ele Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $902 +$2 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusi Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 59-61 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $301 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 62 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia R Jun 06 $827 +$1 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 56-58 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will Surne Bilbao Basket win Liga Endesa? Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 05 $345 $0 +0%
Will USD reach 18,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Jun 05 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Brumbies win the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final? Jun 05 $266 +$4 +2%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $883 +$9 +1%
Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $2,276 +$7 +0%
Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $350 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27? Jun 03 $6,001 +$6 +0%
Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27? Jun 03 $2,091 +$2 +0%
Will David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27? Jun 03 $3,637 +$47 +1%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $567 +$2 +0%
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 02 $397 +$2 +0%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.75 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $168 +$15 +9%
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $210 +$19 +9%
Will USD reach 17,800 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Jun 01 $901 +$1 +0%
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $248 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$12,750
sports 20% +$152
politics 14% −$216
world 12% +$1,220
finance 5% +$122
tech 1% +$54
crypto 1% +$169
culture 0% +$29
economics 0% +$24
weather 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $198 23m
Will California Black Bears finish in 1st place at the Major League Pi BUY No 99¢ $15 50m
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Down 99¢ $45 1h
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw BUY Yes 100¢ $3,046 1h
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc BUY Yes 100¢ $133 3h
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 99¢ $124 3h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY No 100¢ $999 5h
Will Paraguay go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $152 5h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 82¢ $26 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 98¢ $166 19h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 98¢ $254 19h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 98¢ $698 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 98¢ $457 20h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $46 20h
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $320 20h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $43 22h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $54 22h
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,108 2d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? BUY No 100¢ $6,784 2d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? BUY No 100¢ $8,065 2d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,439 2d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? BUY No 100¢ $4,614 2d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $124 3d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL No 77¢ $456 3d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $323 3d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $20 3d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $416 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 7% -9.2%
≤30d 174 +10.0% -0.5% 97% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 992 +1.3% -8.3% 97% 2% -10.3%
all 1276 +4.1% -5.8% 98% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 3% -11.3%
10% -14.8% 2% -19.8%
15% -23.0% 1% -27.6%
20% -30.6% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,117.02 · official $9,117.02 (match) · 3500 history records