Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c0d…f04c
crypto · 250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$181 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$148 · open +$96
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,881
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses171 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)239 / 250
History coverage124d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$50
14 days−$34
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $289 $342 +$53 (+18%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $349 $307 −$42 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 62¢ $226 $246 +$20 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $219 $232 +$14 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $167 $189 +$22 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 48¢ 50¢ $157 $164 +$7 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 65¢ 69¢ $143 $152 +$9 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 84¢ $97 $110 +$14 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 84¢ 82¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 32¢ 33¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes 82¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? Yes 47¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 14 $40 −$8 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $210 +$35 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $956 −$121 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $130 +$31 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $938 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $400 +$5 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$11 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $110 +$19 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $320 +$51 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 24 $100 −$67 -67%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $300 +$15 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $200 −$22 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 16 $415 +$73 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $232 +$23 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $260 +$42 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $770 +$116 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $100 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $40 −$21 -53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 07 $250 −$166 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 06 $131 +$4 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 04 $110 +$44 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $61 −$2 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $65 −$60 -92%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $250 +$60 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $95 +$41 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $300 +$15 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $110 +$11 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $50 −$14 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $240 −$125 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $60 +$4 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $574 −$224 -39%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 12 $71 −$60 -84%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -80%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $598 +$108 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $123 +$21 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $328 +$74 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% +$34
finance 10% −$21
crypto 6% −$31
politics 4% +$157
other 2% +$104
economics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $5 26m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 33m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 32¢ $10 35m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $30 35m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $101 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 69¢ $10 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 69¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 66¢ $3 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $7 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $10 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $17 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $6 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $9 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 20h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $9 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $10 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $10 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -11.4%
≤30d 18 -17.1% -25.0% 61% 33% -14.3%
≤90d 82 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 38% -5.3%
all 239 -4.0% -13.2% 72% 32% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 32% -9.0%
10% -21.5% 19% -17.7%
15% -29.1% 12% -25.6%
20% -36.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,881.46 · official $1,881.83 (match) · 1645 history records