Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c0d…a3ce
sports · 254 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$98 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$193
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions58
Markets (closed)196 / 254
History coverage92d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 58 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$57
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 54¢ 66¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 65¢ 86¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 89¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 74¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 54¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 29¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 38¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 69¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -59%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $6 −$4 -67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $11 +$2 +16%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $54 −$33 -62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$11 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% −$223
world 5% −$97
other 2% +$131
politics 1% −$13
crypto 1% +$93
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 51m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.6% -10.0% 39% 20% -28.4%
≤30d 95 +2.2% -7.5% 32% 14% -5.3%
≤90d 189 +5.1% -4.9% 40% 31% -13.2%
all 196 +10.1% -0.4% 42% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 34% -10.2%
10% -9.9% 31% -18.8%
15% -18.6% 29% -26.6%
20% -26.6% 27% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.60 · official $190.96 (match) · 1737 history records