Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c0c…4b7b crypto 967 markets active 7d ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,729 (-13%) realized −$2,729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%352W / 615L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$77
30 days−$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 182 -13.1% -21.3% 48% 42% -21.0%
≤90d 967 -9.2% -17.8% 36% 34% -24.0%
all 967 -9.2% -17.8% 36% 34% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 34% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 31% -31.3%
15% -32.9% 25% -37.9%
20% -39.4% 22% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses352 / 615
Open positions0
Markets (closed)967 / 967
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 967 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $86 −$40 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$9 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $119 +$92 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $131 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $37 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $206 +$43 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $87 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$18 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$23 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$52 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $65 −$40 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $79 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$12 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $25 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$29 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 31 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $62 −$51 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $40 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $17 −$15 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $47 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $86 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $212 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $119 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records