Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8c08…e7b6 crypto 1449 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,462 (+7%) realized +$1,409 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%718W / 715L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$269
14 days+$129
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$80
other 29% +$446
sports 20% +$334
politics 1% +$212
world 1% −$60
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% −$13
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% +27.4%
≤30d 48 -11.7% -20.1% 31% 31% +3.5%
≤90d 839 -19.7% -27.4% 40% 40% -21.8%
all 1433 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 50% -5.6%
10% -14.8% 50% -14.6%
15% -23.0% 50% -22.9%
20% -30.6% 48% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized+$1,409
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses718 / 715
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1433 / 1449
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 47¢ 80¢ $98 $165 +$67 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $129 $141 +$12 (+9%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 59¢ $101 $113 +$12 (+12%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $87 $83 −$4 (-4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $51 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-19%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 40¢ 19¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $13 +$17 +129%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$49 +121%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $72 +$78 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$39 +55%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 −$85 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will France win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $31 +$41 +135%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $226 +$250 +110%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$7 -40%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$20 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$56 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $65 +$8 +12%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $132 +$78 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$6 -34%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $16 +$44 +276%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $16 +$34 +216%
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $33 −$32 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $53 +$87 +165%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $93 −$92 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $45 −$4 -8%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $86 +$74 +86%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 01 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $90 +$336 +373%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? May 23 $80 +$83 +104%
Discord IPO before 2027? May 22 $7 +$9 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 19h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 20 BUY 16¢ $51 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 34h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 44¢ $41 44h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $88 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $72 3d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $37 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 14¢ $31 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 90¢ $27 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 90¢ $90 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 90¢ $358 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will France win on 2026-06-1 BUY 42¢ $31 9d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $53 9d
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 9d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.74 · official $744.31 · 3500 history records