Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c07…50dd weather 212 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%198W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$21
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$18
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 50 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 142 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 211 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses198 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage134d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $186 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? Jun 28 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 28 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 26 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $177 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 1? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on May 18? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $182 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $186 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $104 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $48 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $170 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $180 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $183 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $45 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $47 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $49 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 13d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.90 · official $185.90 (match) · 459 history records