Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8c04…03fe sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,158 (+61%) realized +$18,167 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 64L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$3,298
14 days+$17,313
30 days+$17,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$4,222
other 33% +$3,400
politics 16% +$10,253
crypto 3% −$71
economics 2% +$58
culture 0% −$76
weather 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.0% -5.9% 30% 30% +35.2%
≤30d 41 +28.7% +16.4% 41% 41% +98.1%
≤90d 87 -7.0% -15.9% 30% 29% +48.3%
all 101 +8.0% -2.3% 37% 36% +46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 36% +46.4%
10% -11.6% 36% +32.4%
15% -20.2% 32% +19.6%
20% -28.0% 31% +7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$186 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized+$18,167
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage399d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $370 $361 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$24 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $543 +$472 +87%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $112 +$122 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $478 −$471 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $415 +$1,589 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $180 −$177 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$827 +414%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $453 −$21 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $41 −$38 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,338 +$2,915 +218%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $508 −$16 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $327 −$321 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $868 −$488 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $815 −$342 -42%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $306 +$631 +206%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,422 +$2,609 +183%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,492 +$5,813 +390%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,503 +$5,913 +393%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $205 +$606 +296%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $203 +$206 +101%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $194 −$91 -47%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $191 +$383 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $75 +$28 +37%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $58 +$17 +28%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $89 −$73 -82%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $79 +$135 +172%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $281 −$277 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $359 −$351 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $79 −$77 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $302 +$86 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $85 +$123 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 13 $41 +$37 +90%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $156 −$152 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $79 −$77 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $75 +$308 +408%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $790 −$63 -8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $152 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $236 0m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 12m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $126 47m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $137 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 10h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $112 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $72 35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $478 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $2,004 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $205 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $210 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $180 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $200 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $432 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $375 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster $4 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster $41 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $78 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $204 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $304 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $4,253 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $199 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $240 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $492 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.33 · official $361.33 (match) · 249 history records