Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8c04…a98f sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$926 (-8%) realized −$995 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 50L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$732
weather 8% −$218
crypto 4% −$169
other 4% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 40% -22.1%
≤30d 30 -6.9% -15.8% 40% 40% -22.1%
≤90d 69 -14.6% -22.8% 48% 41% -16.5%
all 90 -19.4% -27.1% 44% 37% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -17.7%
10% -34.1% 33% -25.5%
15% -40.5% 20% -32.7%
20% -46.3% 18% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$71 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$995
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage120d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $110 $172 +$62 (+56%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +61%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +649%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -86%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -50%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$8 +75%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$6 +27%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$5 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 +$45 +176%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +88%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 11 $51 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Sharks Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 10? Apr 11 $108 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 10? Apr 10 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 10? Apr 10 $247 +$4 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Kraken Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5? Apr 05 $5 +$11 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4? Apr 05 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 4? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 4? Apr 04 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 24h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 31h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Chicago Cubs 89¢ $18 45h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $10 46h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $18 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $10 3d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.57 · official $213.72 (match) · 297 history records