Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8c03…12b2
crypto · 725 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,977 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,979 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,979
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses180 / 544
Open positions1
Markets (closed)724 / 725
History coverage102d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 724 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$162
14 days−$447
30 days−$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$13 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$18 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$8 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,974
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $23 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -53.5% -58.0% 17% 17% -42.5%
≤30d 282 -43.1% -48.5% 21% 20% -42.5%
≤90d 672 -44.4% -49.7% 23% 22% -34.8%
all 724 -42.0% -47.5% 25% 24% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.5% 24% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 23% -37.0%
15% -57.1% 22% -43.0%
20% -61.3% 20% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.12 · official $17.12 (match) · 3500 history records