Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8c03…143c crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,010 (-34%) realized −$2,010 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day89.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,010
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -54.0% -58.3% 36% 36% -40.9%
≤30d 11 -54.0% -58.3% 36% 36% -40.9%
≤90d 11 -54.0% -58.3% 36% 36% -40.9%
all 11 -54.0% -58.3% 36% 36% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.3% 36% -40.9%
10% -62.3% 18% -46.5%
15% ← realistic here -66.0% 9% -51.7%
20% -69.3% 0% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$435 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,010
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$536
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $548 −$525 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $384 −$384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $632 −$618 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $816 +$283 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $830 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,644 +$711 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $465 −$451 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $227 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $67 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records