Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bfd…a4d5 crypto 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%314W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$23
politics 18% −$2
other 13% +$2
sports 11% +$6
world 7% +$3
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 50% -8.2%
≤30d 46 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 28% -11.2%
≤90d 215 +0.1% -9.4% 84% 6% -9.8%
all 408 -0.7% -10.1% 77% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses314 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)408 / 411
History coverage141d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +129%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $6 +$10 +180%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $7 +$3 +48%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $4 +$3 +86%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +92%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $6 +$4 +70%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 03 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $17 −$13 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9PM ET May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 4d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 67¢ $6 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $8 5d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 82¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $6 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 6d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $5 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $6 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 66¢ $8 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 67¢ $7 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $6 8d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $4 9d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $5 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $5 10d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 12d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 72¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.30 · official $21.30 (match) · 1829 history records