Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bfc…8d4f
weather · 56 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$46 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)48 / 56
History coverage24d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 52¢ 100¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 67¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 73¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 37¢ 44¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 75¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 68¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 83¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? No 79¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? No 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? No 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? No 78¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? No 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? No 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? No 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? No 72¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? No 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? No 83¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $13 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$5 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $12 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $6 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $13 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 03 $13 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $21 +$13 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 02 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$5 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30? May 31 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 30? May 31 $7 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29? May 30 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 29 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 29 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 28 $11 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? May 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 24? May 25 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24? May 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 23? May 24 $27 +$13 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 22? May 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $7 50m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 37¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $7 45h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY No 79¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 60¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY No 73¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 68¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? BUY No 67¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 79¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? BUY No 83¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? BUY No 76¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? BUY No 64¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY No 63¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 75¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? BUY No 66¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 80¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4? BUY No 82¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +6.1% -4.0% 78% 78% -8.9%
≤30d 48 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 75% -2.9%
≤90d 48 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 75% -2.9%
all 48 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 75% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 75% -2.9%
10% -15.3% 62% -12.2%
15% -23.5% 35% -20.7%
20% -31.0% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.24 · official $71.12 (match) · 100 history records