Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bfa…e8ed world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 11% $0
politics 10% +$1
sports 9% +$10
tech 7% $0
weather 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 0% -9.6%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 53% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -8.7%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage474d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? May 21 $6 $0 -7%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 24 $25 $0 -1%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 22 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $24 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $27 +$1 +3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 29 $15 $0 -1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4? Mar 05 $23 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $15 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.19 (match) · 166 history records