Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8bf9…8292 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$86 (+6%) realized +$92 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +27.9% +15.7% 60% 44% +22.9%
≤30d 25 +27.9% +15.7% 60% 44% +22.9%
≤90d 25 +27.9% +15.7% 60% 44% +22.9%
all 25 +27.9% +15.7% 60% 44% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.7% 44% +22.9%
10% ← realistic here +4.6% 32% +11.1%
15% -5.5% 28% +0.4%
20% -14.7% 24% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,491
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions21
Markets (closed)25 / 46
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ 84¢ $292 $288 −$3 (-1%)
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu Stefan Adrian Andreescu 94¢ 93¢ $195 $193 −$2 (-1%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ 86¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Patrick Schoen 84¢ 84¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun Mili Poljicak 95¢ 94¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Monastir: Photos Photiades vs Paul Inchauspe Paul Inchauspe 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic Vuk Radjenovic 86¢ 87¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Monastir: Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin vs Danil Panarin Danil Panarin 79¢ 78¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Maria Pares Bergnes De Las Casas Alana Subasic 88¢ 88¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Andre Lima 82¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 66¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
ITF Constanta: Ruben Hartig vs Iulius Maximus Stoica Ruben Hartig 76¢ 80¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 61¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Ayla Aksu 65¢ 67¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Bia Mesquita 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff Cash/Tracy 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 69¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano Luciana Moyano 70¢ 69¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman Vito Dellelba 26¢ 29¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $20 +$15 +75%
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $10 +$1 +15%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $10 +$57 +553%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $10 +$22 +218%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 15 $10 +$10 +102%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $3 +$2 +95%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $17 +$7 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu BUY Stefan Adrian Andreescu 94¢ $98 14m
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $79 14m
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $45 14m
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ $34 14m
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 84¢ $27 15m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Mili Poljicak 94¢ $24 15m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Vuk Radjenovic 86¢ $74 17m
ITF Monastir: Oluwaseun Peter Ogunsakin vs Danil Panarin BUY Danil Panarin 79¢ $42 33m
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Maria Pares Bergnes De Las Casas BUY Alana Subasic 88¢ $28 47m
ITF Constanta: Stefan Adrian Andreescu vs Andrei Corneliu Gadoiu BUY Stefan Adrian Andreescu 94¢ $98 1h
ITF Constanta: Ruben Hartig vs Iulius Maximus Stoica BUY Ruben Hartig 76¢ $12 1h
ITF Monastir: Photos Photiades vs Paul Inchauspe BUY Paul Inchauspe 84¢ $85 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $90 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Ustiniya Lekomtseva 85¢ $79 1h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Patrick Schoen 84¢ $84 1h
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Mili Poljicak 95¢ $77 1h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 86¢ $79 1h
ITF Luque: Camila Romero vs Luciana Moyano BUY Luciana Moyano 70¢ $9 1h
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman BUY Vito Dellelba 26¢ $1 2h
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman BUY Vito Dellelba 26¢ $1 2h
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman BUY Vito Dellelba 26¢ $3 2h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 51¢ $8 22h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $10 23h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 59¢ $6 23h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 59¢ $6 23h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 54¢ $9 23h
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza BUY Aditya Kothari $1 25h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo BUY Pavlos Tsitsipas 82¢ $10 28h
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 87¢ $10 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 65¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,491.26 · official $1,491.26 (match) · 60 history records