Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf6…cf2a sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$261 (-3%) realized −$251 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate65%81W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$147
14 days+$379
30 days+$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$427
other 15% −$277
crypto 5% −$206
culture 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 50% +16.2%
≤30d 8 +36.4% +23.4% 62% 62% +38.8%
≤90d 14 +2.7% -7.1% 43% 43% +12.4%
all 125 -1.4% -10.7% 65% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 17% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 14% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 11% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses81 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage116d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rayan: 2+ shots Yes 48¢ 34¢ $33 $23 −$10 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $66 +$48 +73%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $122 +$231 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$94 +91%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$148 +145%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $91 +$84 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 20 $100 −$90 -90%
CR Flamengo vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5 Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 Mar 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $146 +$51 +35%
Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $126 +$1 +1%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 8.5 Mar 19 $138 +$2 +1%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $189 +$4 +2%
Will CA Bucaramanga vs. Once Caldas end in a draw? Mar 19 $183 +$6 +3%
Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $120 +$1 +1%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $100 +$2 +2%
US Avellino 1912 vs. FC Südtirol: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Frosinone Calcio vs. SSC Bari: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $37 $0 +1%
Millonarios FC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $160 +$2 +1%
Llaneros FC vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Central Córdoba vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? Mar 18 $2 $0 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Mantova 1911 vs. Cesena FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $40 +$49 +122%
Venezia FC vs. Calcio Padova: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Mantova 1911 vs. Cesena FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $12 $0 +2%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF América win on 2026-03-04? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-03-07? Mar 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5) Mar 17 $19 −$19 -100%
ENPPI vs. Zamalek SC: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Clermont Foot 63 vs. Pau FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rayan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 48¢ $34 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $114 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 57¢ $66 4h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $122 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: S BUY 18¢ $48 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 10h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $91 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 BUY $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $29 69d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? SELL No $10 69d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY No $100 70d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $98 101d
CR Flamengo vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $96 101d
Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 20¢ $51 101d
Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $50 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.20 · official $23.20 (match) · 280 history records