Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf6…bdf2 weather 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$266 (-6%) realized −$244 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$72
14 days+$73
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$325
sports 33% −$25
world 6% +$22
other 6% −$44
crypto 5% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.1% -2.2% 71% 68% +3.4%
≤30d 42 +8.8% -1.6% 64% 62% +1.9%
≤90d 83 -5.4% -14.4% 55% 53% -15.0%
all 83 -5.4% -14.4% 55% 53% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 53% -15.0%
10% -22.6% 41% -23.2%
15% -30.1% 35% -30.6%
20% -36.9% 27% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 37
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage54d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 48¢ 30¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 81¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 4¢ $59 $4 −$55 (-94%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 72¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 64¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs MOUZ 31¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 30? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Will Vitality make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Heroic 61¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Team Falcons 78¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$21 +59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$7 -67%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $206 +$74 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $12 +$8 +64%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $38 +$22 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 23 $55 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs G2 Ares (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Reg May 20 $11 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $27 +$13 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $48 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 19 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $72 +$114 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $34 −$28 -82%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $15 +$45 +307%
Will Vitality make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? May 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $81 +$19 +23%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $19 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $26 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $399 +$81 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 03 $43 +$17 +39%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 03 $14 +$6 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $141 −$59 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.40 · official $28.41 (match) · 458 history records