Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8bf5…a351 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,015 (+21%) realized +$4,141 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$3,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,036
7 days+$3,928
14 days+$3,819
30 days+$4,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$2,965
sports 22% +$545
crypto 7% +$421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +35.8% +22.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤30d 10 +19.6% +8.2% 80% 80% +19.9%
≤90d 10 +19.6% +8.2% 80% 80% +19.9%
all 10 +19.6% +8.2% 80% 80% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 80% +19.9%
10% -2.2% 80% +8.4%
15% -11.6% 30% -2.1%
20% -20.3% 30% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$521 vs −$55 · ×9.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.98 per $1 lost it wins $37.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,269
Realized+$4,141
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 72¢ $2,250 $2,145 −$105 (-5%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $1,145 $1,124 −$21 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,990 +$650 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,321 +$763 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,264 +$1,183 +52%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,827 +$441 +24%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,373 +$421 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $902 +$471 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -99%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $111 −$9 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $359 +$104 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $225 +$134 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $2,267 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $67 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $390 3h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $163 3h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $179 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 75¢ $1,990 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,814 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,817 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $507 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $100 21h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $41 22h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $208 22h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $141 22h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $237 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $78 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,137 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,255 31h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,269.29 · official $3,269.43 (match) · 51 history records