Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf4…2c9c sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13,696 (-57%) realized −$13,831 · open +$135
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,151per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,469
7 days−$8,216
14 days−$8,216
30 days−$8,255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$6,215
other 34% −$7,126
world 2% −$452
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 47% 33% -52.6%
≤30d 18 -26.6% -33.6% 44% 33% -50.5%
≤90d 18 -26.6% -33.6% 44% 33% -50.5%
all 20 -34.0% -40.3% 40% 30% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 30% -62.2%
10% -46.0% 30% -65.8%
15% -51.2% 25% -69.1%
20% -56.0% 25% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,443) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$487 vs −$1,486 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$13,831
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage394d
Avg bet$1,151
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $102 $237 +$135 (+133%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,990 −$1,990 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,443 +$1,057 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,007 +$26 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$27 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,437 −$2,400 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3,640 −$3,588 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $611 −$600 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$513 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$492 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,017 +$1,286 +126%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $507 +$454 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $495 −$483 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45m views on day 1? May 30 $180 −$180 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1? May 30 $5,503 −$5,503 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $62 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $452 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,990 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,033 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $127 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,443 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2,437 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $105 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $897 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1,055 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $527 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $527 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $527 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $608 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $102 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $507 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $509 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $508 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.23 · official $232.71 · 105 history records