Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8bf1…4361 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 16% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 6% $0
weather 6% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 7% -9.4%
all 37 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage334d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $5 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on July 24? Aug 10 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 03 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $13 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $14 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $21 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $40 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $35 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records