Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf0…6ff7 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-6%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 84% 12% -15.7%
≤30d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 84% 12% -15.7%
≤90d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 84% 12% -15.7%
all 25 -4.3% -13.4% 84% 12% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 12% -15.7%
10% -21.7% 8% -23.8%
15% -29.3% 8% -31.1%
20% -36.2% 8% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$22 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $57 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$26 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $56 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $57 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $39 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $22 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $46 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $57 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $24 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records