Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bef…375e
politics · 40 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage311d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 19 $5 $0 -10%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $1 $0 -17%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 28% +$1
politics 28% +$1
other 26% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 15m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 15m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $33 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $11 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $41 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $14 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $27 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $6 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $36 42h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $46 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $46 3d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 277d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 88¢ $5 277d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 298d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 298d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $16 299d
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 299d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 17¢ $1 299d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $9 299d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $22 299d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $16 299d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? SELL No 99¢ $15 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -8.6%
all 40 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records