Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bed…85b8 crypto 711 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,995 (-12%) realized −$2,991 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%304W / 404L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,730
7 days−$1,931
14 days−$2,093
30 days−$2,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$1,214
other 31% −$1,518
sports 6% +$10
world 2% −$449
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% −$56
economics 0% −$26
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 44% -30.7%
≤30d 194 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 41% -30.2%
≤90d 194 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 41% -30.2%
all 708 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 39% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -24.1%
10% -25.6% 32% -31.4%
15% -32.8% 25% -38.0%
20% -39.4% 19% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$1,593
Realized−$2,991
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses304 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)708 / 711
History coverage303d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $892 $901 +$9 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $700 $686 −$14 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 370 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,110 +$228 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$441 -87%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $346 −$340 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$281 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,015 −$2,010 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$11 -35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $563 +$628 +112%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $524 +$112 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$5 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $906 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 53m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $96 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $660 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $455 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $583 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $82 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $67 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $225 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,005 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $705 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.02 · official $1,593.02 (match) · 2691 history records