Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8bec…7800 sports 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,522 (-2%) realized −$1,358 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%313W / 371L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$673est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,071
7 days+$2,375
14 days+$2,138
30 days+$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,894
crypto 5% −$492
weather 0% +$36
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +23.2% +11.4% 54% 49% +2.5%
≤30d 354 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 38% -8.2%
≤90d 537 -6.7% -15.5% 44% 38% -11.3%
all 684 -4.2% -13.3% 46% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -12.8%
10% -21.6% 38% -21.2%
15% -29.2% 35% -28.8%
20% -36.1% 29% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$68 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$1,358
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses313 / 371
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$673
Open positions2
Markets (closed)684 / 686
History coverage108d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 58¢ $575 $561 −$14 (-2%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Alliance Guardians 58¢ 100¢ $75 $130 +$55 (+73%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Pigeons 68¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 325 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee Jun 17 $110 +$16 +14%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $273 +$4 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $92 +$151 +165%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $174 +$156 +90%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $120 +$143 +119%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $385 −$382 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $417 +$157 +38%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $403 +$167 +42%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $242 −$239 -99%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $153 +$237 +154%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $73 +$208 +285%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $111 −$58 -52%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $58 −$45 -78%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $536 +$145 +27%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $141 +$154 +109%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $43 +$27 +65%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $210 +$120 +57%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $453 +$245 +54%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $167 −$165 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $156 +$109 +70%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $232 −$228 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $244 +$115 +47%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $216 +$178 +82%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $149 +$161 +108%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $231 −$229 -99%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $135 −$14 -10%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $166 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $71 −$6 -8%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $133 +$58 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $80 +$106 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $276 +$150 +54%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $213 +$207 +97%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $216 +$373 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $167 +$103 +62%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $21 −$21 -97%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $131 +$3 +2%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $294 +$206 +70%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $195 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $141 −$54 -39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $160 +$152 +95%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $380 −$367 -96%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $153 −$151 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $169 −$2 -1%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $168 +$98 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $235 59m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $136 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $212 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 67¢ $277 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 64¢ $273 1h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 58¢ $76 1h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Pigeons 68¢ $151 1h
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 87¢ $110 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $92 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $385 3h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $174 3h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 70¢ $403 6h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ $120 6h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 72¢ $417 7h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 57¢ $242 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 100¢ $390 8h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ $66 9h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $1 9h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 37¢ $85 9h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 27¢ $59 10h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $50 10h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $52 10h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 28¢ $28 12h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 24¢ $45 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $12 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $58 13h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 65¢ $276 25h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 66¢ $286 25h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 61¢ $250 26h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 47¢ $141 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.56 · official $691.56 (match) · 1935 history records