Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bea…6edc crypto 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate80%389W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$4
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -65.9% -69.2% 25% 25% -61.5%
≤30d 478 -1.9% -11.2% 80% 17% -10.8%
≤90d 487 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 18% -10.9%
all 487 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 18% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -10.9%
10% -19.6% 9% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 4% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses389 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)487 / 487
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 487 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$2 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.12 · official $5.13 (match) · 1083 history records