Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8be6…2858 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+8%) realized −$34 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -41.3% -46.9% 0% 0% -46.9%
≤30d 1 -41.3% -46.9% 0% 0% -46.9%
≤90d 1 -41.3% -46.9% 0% 0% -46.9%
all 1 -41.3% -46.9% 0% 0% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 0% -46.9%
10% -52.0% 0% -52.0%
15% -56.6% 0% -56.6%
20% -60.9% 0% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$42 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1 / 8
History coverage24d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $188 +$68 (+57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $23 $34 +$11 (+49%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$42 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $35 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $60 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 12d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 12d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 24d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 24d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $124 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.41 · official $419.61 (match) · 34 history records