Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8be4…b795 crypto 102 markets active 10h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,320 (-9%) realized −$24,826 · open −$2,494
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 55L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,925per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$522est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,791
7 days−$6,735
14 days−$6,735
30 days−$6,735
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$9,315
sports 8% −$3,575
other 7% −$5,654
economics 5% −$13,600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 25% -24.3%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 25% -24.3%
≤90d 83 -8.4% -17.2% 53% 36% -14.4%
all 100 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 31% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 31% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 19% -26.4%
15% -42.7% 14% -33.5%
20% -48.3% 13% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$3,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,202 vs −$1,523 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$24,826
Unrealized−$2,494
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$522
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage191d
Avg bet$2,925
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1,421 $3 −$1,418 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1,078 $2 −$1,076 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,451 +$5,825 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,649 +$6,951 +262%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $309 −$300 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $560 −$545 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,047 +$4,631 +442%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,841 −$2,786 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,510 +$4,398 +291%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,460 −$2,407 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,510 −$1,477 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,116 −$1,089 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,443 −$1,410 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,436 +$3,585 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1,047 −$1,022 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,305 −$2,254 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,803 −$2,745 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,119 −$1,093 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,253 −$5,151 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $4,947 −$4,848 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,764 −$1,718 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3,358 −$3,280 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $5,032 +$478 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $10,098 −$10,000 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $14,142 +$2,327 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $5,032 +$476 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $12,585 +$1,270 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 11 $2,018 +$253 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $9,044 +$644 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? May 10 $5,013 +$177 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $12,136 +$2,191 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? May 09 $3,055 −$2,249 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $10,045 +$646 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $5,098 −$5,000 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $17,567 +$947 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? May 07 $2,017 −$2,000 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $10,037 +$512 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $10,065 +$940 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $18,032 +$2,550 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $6,112 +$1,922 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $6,059 −$223 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $6,106 +$684 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $4,887 +$23 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 2? May 02 $2,065 −$2,000 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $8,023 −$35 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? May 01 $2,024 −$1,397 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1? May 01 $3,017 +$199 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2,022 +$331 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $3,015 +$136 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2,023 +$351 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $2,022 +$207 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $560 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,103 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,452 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,451 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2,841 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,460 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2,649 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,047 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,510 25h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,116 37h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,443 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,047 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,510 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,305 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,803 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,119 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,436 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5,253 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4,947 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,764 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3,358 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $5,034 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,025 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? BUY No 91¢ $5,032 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,019 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,020 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $5,022 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,022 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY No 92¢ $3,018 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.94 · official $4.94 (match) · 209 history records