Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8be1…5731 other 655 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,773 (+0%) realized +$1,824 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%633W / 18L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$910
14 days+$1,655
30 days+$1,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$593
politics 31% +$566
world 12% +$388
sports 11% +$17
culture 4% +$35
tech 3% +$18
finance 2% +$6
weather 1% +$6
economics 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.0%
≤30d 628 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 651 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.1%
all 651 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 1% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$39 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized+$1,824
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses633 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)651 / 655
History coverage51d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brandon Lowe: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 90¢ $198 $180 −$18 (-9%)
Zack Gelof: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 90¢ $198 $180 −$18 (-9%)
Jack Perkins: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 90¢ $178 $163 −$15 (-9%)
Spencer Horwitz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amanda Hollowell be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $462 $0 +0%
Will Defonsio Daniels be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $312 $0 +0%
Will Sharon Stokes-Williamson be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $192 $0 +0%
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? Jun 17 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? Jun 17 $352 +$4 +1%
Will Markwayne Mullin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma Jun 17 $2,174 +$2 +0%
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $782 +$1 +0%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $4,176 +$4 +0%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 17 $3,354 +$4 +0%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1,906 +$25 +1%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $708 +$38 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $397 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $4,492 +$9 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $222 $0 +0%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $433 +$1 +0%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top US Netflix movie this week Jun 16 $424 +$1 +0%
Will "Creed III" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $483 +$1 +0%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w Jun 16 $394 +$1 +0%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $318 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $299 $0 +0%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $381 +$1 +0%
Will "David" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will "Poor Things" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $312 $0 +0%
Will Lucas Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $279 $0 +0%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $591 +$1 +0%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $511 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $151 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Estevez vs. Rossini: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 16 $6,846 +$33 +0%
Will Trump say "Affordability" this week? Jun 16 $79 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Guarachi/Rosolska vs Bouzkova/Panova Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $350 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $230 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events? Jun 16 $226 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during G7 events? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jack Perkins: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $178 10m
Spencer Horwitz: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $69 10m
Zack Gelof: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 11m
Brandon Lowe: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 11m
Will Sharon Stokes-Williamson be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY No 100¢ $192 2h
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY No 100¢ $462 2h
Will Defonsio Daniels be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY No 100¢ $312 2h
Will Amanda Hollowell be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 2h
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY No 99¢ $151 3h
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY No 98¢ $62 3h
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 3h
Will Wade Burleson be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY No 98¢ $39 3h
Will Frank Lucas be the Republican nominee for OK-03? BUY Yes 99¢ $134 3h
Will Markwayne Mullin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma BUY No 100¢ $2,174 3h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 100¢ $4,176 4h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,148 4h
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $206 4h
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? BUY No 100¢ $90 4h
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $782 4h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,906 6h
Will Trump say "Star" this week? BUY No 95¢ $18 6h
Will Trump say "Star" this week? BUY No 95¢ $690 6h
Will Lucas Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $64 9h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 9h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $26 9h
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $222 9h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.87 · official $592.87 (match) · 1761 history records