Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bdc…a0ba
weather · 921 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,341 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,370 · open +$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,371
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses741 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)916 / 921
History coverage62d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 916 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$58
14 days−$467
30 days−$970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,033 +$33 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 93¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 88¢ 85¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 90¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 7? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30? No 87¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 4? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? No 88¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 14? No 94¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$21 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $255 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $197 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $136 +$59 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$17 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $100 −$99 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $195 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $150 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $171 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $80 −$57 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 08 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$17 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 −$79 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 −$48 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $151 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $196 +$26 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,213
world 0% −$229
other 0% +$58
politics 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 88¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $110 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $1,003 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $100 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $29 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $102 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $100 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $257 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $200 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $207 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $55 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $51 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $197 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -8.8% -17.5% 73% 16% -10.4%
≤30d 351 -3.9% -13.1% 77% 26% -12.0%
≤90d 916 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 21% -10.2%
all 916 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 21% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 21% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,370.64 · official $1,370.64 (match) · 3500 history records