Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8bdc…3632 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,245 (+1%) realized +$1,244 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,475per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$82
politics 36% −$92
sports 10% +$1,509
world 4% −$97
economics 3% −$6
tech 2% −$5
culture 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +6.8% -3.4% 13% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 110 +2.1% -7.6% 10% 8% -9.4%
all 152 +8.4% -1.9% 18% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 14% -9.0%
10% -11.3% 14% -17.7%
15% -19.8% 12% -25.7%
20% -27.7% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,059) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$7 · ×11.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,457
Realized+$1,244
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,475
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,050 $1,050 −$1 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $406 $407 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $391 +$2 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $742 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,671 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,213 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,609 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,435 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,401 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5,438 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $80 +$77 +97%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $642 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,280 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,498 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,059 −$3 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $85 +$79 +93%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,121 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $58 +$100 +172%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,106 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,182 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $2,021 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $2,690 −$3 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $6,621 −$8 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $2,816 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $2,578 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,852 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $4,276 −$5 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 3h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 4h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $324 4h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $324 6h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $741 44h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $742 47h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $860 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $862 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $862 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $865 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $406 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,120 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,122 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,264 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,266 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,280 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,281 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,208 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,457.02 · official $1,457.02 (match) · 506 history records