Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bd8…f306
sports · 347 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$4,322 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,428 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$676
Realized−$4,428
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses166 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3,473
Open positions5
Markets (closed)343 / 347
History coverage118d
Avg bet$772
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 5 History 343 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$82
14 days−$3,890
30 days−$3,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $600 $570 −$30 (-5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 54¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. Cusco FC: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 52¢ 0¢ $2,600 $0 −$2,600 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Club Cerro Porteño (-1.5) Club Cerro Porteño 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 57¢ 0¢ $1,710 $0 −$1,710 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $20 +$28 +140%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $20 +$17 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$16 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$17 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $20 +$17 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $20 +$17 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$26 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $20 +$26 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 +$25 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$34 +166%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $20 +$13 +62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$22 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$30 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$18,123
other 29% +$16,636
world 1% −$2,980
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 17h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $20 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $20 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $20 17h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 17h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $20 17h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 17h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $20 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 17h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $20 17h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 17h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $20 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 17h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $20 17h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 17h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $20 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $20 17h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 17h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $20 17h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 17h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $20 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $20 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 54% -4.9%
≤30d 85 +5.4% -4.6% 54% 54% -45.8%
≤90d 260 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 38% -11.5%
all 343 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 40% -11.0%
10% -19.4% 36% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 32% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 28% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.22 · official $676.39 (match) · 3500 history records