Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd6…3b42 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$140
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$204
other 38% +$30
sports 11% +$88
weather 3% +$10
politics 3% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 56% +5.2%
≤30d 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 56% +5.2%
≤90d 16 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 56% +5.2%
all 70 +8.1% -2.2% 36% 36% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 36% -13.2%
10% -11.5% 31% -21.5%
15% -20.1% 31% -29.1%
20% -27.9% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage718d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$46 +45%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$81 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$13 +121%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$28 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $155 +$71 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$40 +39%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 −$113 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$113 +224%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $38 −$33 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 12 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 12 $9 +$18 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$16 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 12 $11 +$28 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 12 $14 +$21 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 11 $39 +$42 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 11 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 11 $87 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 11 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 09 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $148 56m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $132 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $142 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $218 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 28h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $98 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $117 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $16 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $164 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records