Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd5…12db world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 53L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$31
sports 27% +$1
other 17% −$1
economics 8% −$1
politics 5% −$5
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 44% 11% -8.7%
≤30d 29 +70.3% +54.1% 41% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 41 +50.1% +35.8% 44% 10% -9.0%
all 74 +27.3% +15.2% 28% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 5% -9.2%
10% +4.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -5.9% 1% -25.8%
20% -15.1% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 53
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage331d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $78 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 +$3 +7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $217 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $223 +$6 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $224 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2 +$1 +67%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $251 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $90 +$10 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $6 −$1 -16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $97 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $67 +$10 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $24 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $89 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $88 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $86 +$2 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $614 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $565 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $97 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 23 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $112 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $113 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $113 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $50 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $78 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $108 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.88 · official $111.54 · 363 history records