Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd4…ac59 crypto 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$68 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%109W / 12L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$71
crypto 35% +$4
other 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
sports 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 4% -9.3%
all 121 -3.6% -12.8% 90% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 13% -9.3%
10% -21.1% 9% -17.9%
15% -28.7% 6% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses109 / 12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)121 / 126
History coverage606d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? Jun 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 31 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? May 24 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? May 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $126 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 03 $4 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 30? May 03 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on April 13? Apr 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 3? Apr 04 $136 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 30 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 21? Mar 22 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? Mar 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 13 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on March 2? Mar 03 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 20 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $92,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 2 Feb 04 $128 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $99 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $98 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $5 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $6 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $103 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $105 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 36d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $122 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $119 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $3 49d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $126 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 54d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 77¢ $5 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $125 61d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $126 63d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $126 75d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 91¢ $4 77d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $129 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $130 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $127 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $136 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $125 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $125 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.43 · official $118.43 (match) · 563 history records