Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd4…6eaf sports 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,955 (-9%) realized −$1,506 · open −$449
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%225W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$86
14 days−$166
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,028
sports 41% −$781
world 10% +$107
politics 3% −$246
culture 1% −$87
tech 1% +$35
weather 0% −$13
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -28.4% -35.2% 44% 44% -21.2%
≤30d 59 -17.9% -25.7% 53% 51% -20.7%
≤90d 201 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 47% -29.5%
all 397 -5.8% -14.7% 57% 50% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 50% -17.4%
10% -22.9% 43% -25.3%
15% -30.3% 32% -32.5%
20% -37.2% 22% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$25 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$3,629
Realized−$1,506
Unrealized−$449
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses225 / 172
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions32
Markets (closed)397 / 429
History coverage631d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $542 $626 +$84 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $540 $450 −$91 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $309 $362 +$53 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $383 $355 −$28 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $288 $345 +$56 (+20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $288 $226 −$62 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $199 $202 +$3 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 62¢ 39¢ $251 $158 −$93 (-37%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $55 $75 +$20 (+36%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 92¢ $49 $73 +$24 (+50%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $52 $57 +$6 (+11%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+9%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $105 $55 −$50 (-48%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 41¢ $50 $33 −$16 (-33%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 69¢ 18¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 54¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $78 +$53 +69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +174%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$30 +45%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 −$29 -73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$6 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $11 +$6 +60%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $153 +$21 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $30 +$7 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $415 +$97 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $30 +$14 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 27 $37 +$12 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $30 +$16 +52%
Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for th May 26 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Alice Tubello May 26 $30 +$10 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $30 +$17 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $15 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $30 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $30 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $30 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $55 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $30 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $30 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 72¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $8 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 6d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $34 6d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $18 7d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,628.88 · official $3,628.89 (match) · 1417 history records