Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd2…dc43 crypto 11 markets active 15d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 36% -11.9%
≤90d 11 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 36% -11.9%
all 11 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 36% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 36% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 36% -20.3%
15% -23.7% 18% -28.0%
20% -31.2% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records