Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd0…04d5 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$254 (-15%) realized −$235 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%31W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$50
14 days−$55
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$34
sports 25% −$271
crypto 15% −$11
world 13% +$7
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.4% -34.3% 33% 33% -38.9%
≤30d 15 -32.3% -38.7% 33% 27% -36.5%
≤90d 46 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 33% -41.3%
all 66 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 27% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 27% -26.8%
10% -30.5% 20% -33.8%
15% -37.2% 15% -40.2%
20% -43.4% 14% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses31 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage184d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 32¢ $36 $23 −$13 (-36%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 81¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+33%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Under 66¢ 70¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 48¢ 9¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$10 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +76%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$19 -24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 21 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 21 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 21 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 21 $2 $0 +3%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $101 −$100 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $2 $0 +8%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel May 16 $2 $0 +11%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Niels McDonald May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 16 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor May 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May? May 14 $2 $0 +10%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 May 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da May 14 $2 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller May 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bengaluru 2: Maximus Jones vs Amit Vales May 13 $2 +$1 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 27 $1 +$2 +165%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Apr 27 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 23 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$2 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $14 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $36 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $14 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 65¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $63 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 53¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 90¢ $2 28d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $80 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.49 · official $57.01 (match) · 140 history records